Professor,
this information is absolutely correct. You see both Gaddafi of Libya and Saudi Arabia financed Pakistan's nuclear bomb effort in the early 1970s and hence became stake holders in the outcome. Gaddafi & Libya of Gaddafi are no more. The Saudis have been part of the programme since then. They have been allowed into every topsecret nuclear facility whenever they wanted. I have written on this extensively in the past. Please also see below.
Please circulate extensively. This is one of the biggest threats to humanity today.
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                        DEALING WITH THE PAK NUCLEAR MENACE

The US and its allies have been concentrating on the nuclear proliferation threat building up in Iran and North Korea. After the A Q Khan episode Pakistan seems to have been put on the back burner. As a matter of fact the Pak nuclear threat is far more insidious and widespread than is currently assessed in most quarters. Iran’s capability vis-�-vis Pakistan on a scale of 0 to 9 is not even 1; Pakistan would be hovering around 7 or 8 in its comparative nuclear capability. Likewise in the case of North Korea although it has gone much ahead of Iran, it is not in the same league as Pakistan in the number of nuclear weapons that it possesses or is likely to possess in the decade or so. What is more relevant North Korea does not have the radical groups that are capable of carrying out terrorist acts of varying intensities practically across the globe; Iran to date limits its reach to Lebanon, Syria & Gaza.

As if that were not enough the Pak radical groups in concert with sympathizers in the Pakistan Army and ISI have developed the potential to capture power in the state in the not too distant future, perhaps sooner. It means that they could become masters of the Pakistan nuclear arsenal as also the delivery system vastly augmented by North Korea and China. A recent report attributed to Professor Shaun Gregory of Bradford University in the UK mentions that Jihadis thrice attacked Pakistan nuclear sites (Times of India, August 11, 2009). It needs to be added that these are incidents that the western analysts are aware of. There would have been others that were known only to the Pakistan authorities. Hence the world must realize that neutralizing Pak nuclear capability is far more important for the global community than going after the much lesser threat from Iran or North Korea. Of course, China would demur, but that is only to be expected.

     A headline on page 15 of the Indian Express dated January 11, 2009 quoting an article that appeared in the NYT stated: "Obama Camp Fears Pak Nukes Falling into Wrong Hands".

How wrong the NYT caption is, in actual fact. Blind-sided, taken for a ride, head in the sand, gullible, ostrich-like are some of the expressions commonly used to describe persons who have been comprehensively befooled over a period of time. In the case of Pakistan's nuclear assets the befooling relates not to any one person but the entire US establishment that has been involved with Pakistan over the last decade. In spite of the duplicity exercised by Gen. Musharaf from 9/ 11/2001 all the way till his demission of office in 2008 the George W. Bush White House, the State and Defense Departments, the Pentagon and the US Central Command kept on being taken for a ride. They were led to believe that were the Pakistan army not to be backed to the hilt the latter might not be in a position to prevent the Pakistan nukes from falling into the wrong hands. The fact that has been staring many experts in the know for several years is that the nuclear assets of Pakistan are already in the wrong hands.

By about mid-2007 when the Taliban started gaining ground in Afghanistan commanders of US Forces in the field had no doubt that the Taliban were being clandestinely abetted by the Pakistani intelligence agency and a portion of the highers up in the top army echelons of the army as well. By 2008, President George W. Bush had also become convinced, or had finally become convinced of General Musharaf's duplicity. The scales from the eyes of those who had been blind-sided by the Pakistan military in the Anglo Saxon world for full 50 years also fell away after the happenings in Mumbai in the last week of November 2008, now being referred to as 26/11, being likened to the attack seven years earlier in the USA.

     After the Mumbai attack on 26/11, even without the emergence of a credible retaliatory threat from India, the following happened with programmed alacrity:

- The Pakistan army headquarters started pulling out forces from the west to (ostensibly) strengthen the borders with India.

- As if on cue from their handlers the Islamist radicals announced that they would fight alongside Pakistan army with 60 thousands volunteers should India carry out punitive raids on Pakistan territory. For good measure unnamed sources within the Pakistan army let the cat out of the bag (of the deep nexus between these two entities that has been in place for several years) by revealing that a large number of suicide bombers had been placed at the disposal of the Pakistan army.

            By now it would have become clear to almost anybody closely involved with the region that the Pakistan army and several radical Islamist entities operating in Afghanistan, India, parts of Pakistan and elsewhere in the world are hand in glove, symbiotically nurtured since the days of the Taliban occupation of Afghanistan, if not earlier. The radical Islamists are able to venture out boldly well beyond the frontiers of Pakistan, secure in the knowledge that nobody would dare root out their bases and spawning grounds in Pakistan because of the nuclear weapons that they would be able to have access to should their survival be threatened by any external power. They are as much the possessors of the nuclear assets of Pakistan, being an extension of the Pakistan army, as the Pakistan army itself. Of course, there are those who would point out that the radicals have often been targeting the Pakistan army and tried to eliminate Gen. Musharaf. This is on account of policy differences. The genie has outgrown the master and would now like to call the shots, the roles having been reversed on account of the growing strength of the Islamists. In sum, removal of the Pakistan nukes becomes the foremost foreign policy challenge for the Obama administration as also for NATO, the European Union and the free world. There is simply no time to lose.

According to US experts the US has two basic options for accomplishing this goal. It can send in forces to take control of Pakistan's nuclear installations and remove its nuclear arsenal from the country. Or, it can destroy Pakistan's nuclear installations. Both of these options - which are really variations of the same option - are extremely unattractive. It is far from clear that the US military has the capacity to take over Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and it is also unclear what the ultimate effect of a military strike against its nuclear arsenal would be in terms of lives lost and areas rendered uninhabitable due to nuclear fallout. There are several other options that US experts do not mention for which contingency planning would have taken place. Ultimately it is going to be a question of timing in the event of certain happenings, both foreseen and unforeseen. India has to coordinate its strategy with the US and NATO powers for worst case scenarios. Similar exercise needs to be carried out separately with Russia always keeping in mind that China has its ear to the ground in this part of the world.

On the subject of Pakistani nukes and their threat to the world the author of this paper had been interviewed in New Delhi by Financial Times of London. The interview appears on the FT website. It clearly states that the threat from the growing Pakistani nuclear stockpile is no longer just India-centric as was the case earlier. It has now become far more complex, insidious and terrifying for the USA, West and Russia. Video link: http://www.ft.com/cms/885d7916-e3aa-11dc-8799-0000779fd2ac.html?_i_referralObject=5571696&fromSearch=n
            In sum the Pakistan Army supported by China is fast developing the capability to be able to hit the southern flanks of NATO in Europe as well as most US military facilities in the region up to and including Diego Garcia. The same capability would inhere for a successor regime of radical Islamists whenever they are in a position to take over the levers of power. China is very comfortable with this growing capability. Besides being the enabler it has developed leverage with many other entities in Pakistan including several – though not all – radical groupings. That is why it has been opposing US attempts to have some of them being designated as terrorists in the UN. Additionally, China automatically gets to examine all high-tech weapons transferred to the Pak army by the US; technology extrapolation follows.

Pakistan is setting itself up as the provider of last resort for nuclear materiel and weapons to the entire Islamic world in the years ahead. Similarly, when the country is confronted with funds shortage it would have no qualms in selling nukes to the big drug cartels in Mexico and Latin America, besides elements in Russia fighting against the Russian government in Chechnya and elsewhere. China should, on the face of it, be anxious about Xinjiang. Being a dictatorship it is more than capable of eliminating or incarcerating tens of thousands of its already enfeebled opponents in that province. The Uighurs stand largely emasculated. China continues to play up the nuclear threat from that quarter in order to retain the ability to play off both sides – to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds. China is orchestrating a deadly game by rapidly augmenting the nuclear capability of its proxy and 'all weather friend' Pakistan.

To deter India Pakistan does not need more than 20-30 nuclear weapons. According to reliable reports it has already nearly 3 to 4 times that number, in fact larger than India. The additional accumulation is for sale or playing the globe backed by Islamist forces in less than a decade from now. Examples: Sell or transfer 30 nukes to North Korea (Pakistan has a debt of technology to pay to North Korea) and totally alter the regional balance. Another example: provide 20 or 30 nukes to an Islamic country in the Middle East. It will finish off Israel as a player or threaten its very existence. Europe can be directly held to ransom. There are several other scenarios. Evidently, the US has nearly run out of time, dithering over its most important task.


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